Over the past 20 years, emerging economies have progressively influenced changes in the global agriculture and fisheries markets, and this trend is anticipated to continue in the upcoming ten years. Consumption of agricultural commodities has increased during the past 20 years, mostly due to increases in low- and middle-income economies’ populations and incomes. Through improved use of their natural resources and technological and innovative advancements, these nations have likewise seen a rapid increase in production.
International agricultural trade patterns have changed as a result of the ensuing changes in the sites of agricultural production and consumption. India and Southeast Asian nations are predicted to increase their global consumption share due to their expanding urban populations and rising levels of prosperity, while the People’s Republic of China’s influence over the world’s food and agricultural consumption is declining.
PROJECTIONS
According to the Outlook baseline forecasts, over the next 10 years, the People’s Republic of China, India, and Southeast Asian nations will continue to have an increasing impact on global agrifood systems. Although China accounted for 28% of the rise in global consumption in the previous ten years, it is anticipated that its proportion of new demand will drop to 11% in the upcoming ten years due to a stabilization of dietary patterns, slower income development, and a falling population. On the other hand, due to their expanding urban populations and rising levels of wealth, India and Southeast Asian nations are predicted to contribute 31% of the rise in global consumption by 2033.
Over the next ten years, it is anticipated that the total use of agricultural and fishery products will increase by 1.0% annually, with the majority of this growth occurring in low- and middle-income nations. Global food consumption is expected to rise by 1.2% per year as a result of rising incomes and populations. Due to the anticipated increase in the proportion of animal-derived foods in diets and the consequent rise and intensification of livestock production, the use of crops for feed is predicted to increase faster than the use of direct foods in the majority of regions. Middle-income nations are predicted to see a 7% rise in calorie intake, mostly as a result of increased consumption of fats, livestock products, and staple foods.
LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
By 2033, the average daily caloric intake of middle-income nations will rise by 7% due to increased consumption of fats, livestock products, and staple foods. The average calorie consumption in low-income nations is predicted to increase by just 4%, meaning that the world will not meet the Sustainable Development Goal 2 goal of eradicating hunger by 2030. The shift to more nutrient- and protein-rich diets based on animal products, fish and shellfish, vegetables, and fruits is also being hampered by income limits in many nations, which is causing a persistently high reliance on staples. Growing worries about the connections between nutrition, health, and sustainability are reflected in high-income countries’ dietary choices, which show a minor decrease in the use of fats and sugars as well as shifting and stabilizing
Although direct emissions from agriculture would still rise by 5%, it is anticipated that the intensity of global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture will decrease as production growth is focused on productivity gains rather than the extension of cultivated land.As direct agricultural GHG emissions rise more slowly than agricultural production, it is anticipated that the carbon intensity of agricultural production will continue to decline over the next ten years throughout the seven regions examined in this Outlook. Growing agricultural output will, however, result in a 5% absolute increase in direct GHG emissions notwithstanding this relative decoupling.
DEVELOPMENT
It is anticipated that productivity gains on current land, rather than an increase in the cultivated area, will be the main driver of crop output growth. Similar to this, productivity gains are anticipated to account for a sizable amount of the increase in fish and animal production, however herd expansions will also boost output. Significant productivity gaps are predicted to continue despite these anticipated productivity gains, especially in low- and middle-income nations, posing a threat to farm incomes and food security and escalating reliance on food imports.
The Outlook for this year includes a stylized scenario that models the effects of cutting food waste at the retail and consumer levels by 2030 and food losses along supply chains in half. According to the scenario, global agriculture GHG emissions might be reduced by 4% by 2030, with the decrease being spread fairly evenly across all nations, irrespective of wealth levels.
Additionally, it predicts that food prices would decline, leading to a rise in food consumption in low- and lower-middle-income nations. By 2030, 153 million fewer individuals will be undernourished. The scenario highlights possible advantages for consumers and the environment, but it also highlights difficulties for producers, whose livelihoods would be significantly impacted by reduced producer prices and decreased production.
Since 20% of calories are traded and involvement in international agrifood value chains and markets benefits rural livelihoods, healthy international agricultural commodity markets will continue to be crucial for global food security. About 20% of all calories cross borders before being consumed, indicating that agricultural trade is still expanding in tandem with production and consumption.
The COVID-19 outbreak and geopolitical unrest have also brought attention to how vulnerable global agriculture trade is. The volume of commodities traded internationally is anticipated to expand during the next ten years, with shipments between net exporting and net importing countries rising as the traded portion of production stabilizes.
SOUTH AMERICA
It is anticipated that Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, Europe, and Central Asia would all solidify their status as significant net exporters of agricultural commodities, opening up more chances for farmers to profit from involvement in international food supply chains. Asia’s and Africa’s net imports will keep growing since demand is expected to rise faster than supply.
CLOSING
Over the next 10 years, real worldwide reference prices for major agricultural commodities are expected to slightly decline; however, local retail food costs may not reflect this. Over the next ten years, supply and demand dynamics are anticipated to either maintain or slightly lower real worldwide reference prices for major agricultural commodities.
Due to domestic inflation, currency devaluation, and high domestic logistics and processing costs, the gap between international commodity and retail food prices may continue to widen or remain unchanged, even though local retail food prices may not reflect these lower real international commodity prices. The livelihoods of vulnerable consumers may be threatened, and their food security may be jeopardized, by such aggravating local conditions.